The fear of catching the COVID-19 while on a flight has been on everyone’s mind since the virus was officially declared a worldwide pandemic in March. Some experts believe this might be an irrational fear, and that the chances of actually catching the virus are much lower then you might expect.
To justify the claim, Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, conducted a study in which he looked at the benefits of the ’empty middle seat policy’.
Most planes have air-filters that trap 99.99% of particles.
Barnett based his experiment on short haul flights in the US on aircraft configured with three seats on either side of the aisle, such as the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737 along with the assumption that everyone abroad the flight is wearing a mask. Barnett found that if the plane was filled to capacity, the risk of catching COVID-19 from a nearby passenger is just 1 in 4,300. He also found that those odds fell to around 1 in 7,700 if the middle seat was left empty.
One explanation behind why the risk is so low could be due to the fact that modern aircrafts are routinely replaced with fresh air every two to three minutes. Most airplanes are also fitted with specially designed air-filters that trap 99.99% of particles.
A number of airlines and airports have also implemented various protocols such as requiring passengers and crew to wear a face mask, conducting temperature screenings, limiting movement during flights, and routinely disinfecting cabins before and after every flight.
In an interview with CNN Travel, Barnett said: ‘Most things are more dangerous now than they were before Covid, and aviation is no exception to that, but three things have to go wrong for you to get infected (on a flight). There has to be a Covid-19 patient on board and they have to be contagious. They also have to be close enough that there’s a danger you could suffer from the transmission’.
‘You’re endangered by the people sitting next to you in the same row,’ he says. ‘And to a lesser extent, the people in the row behind and the row ahead.’
Those who have the highest chance of contracting COVID-19 are the ones seated in the aisle seats. This is down to the simple fact that they have more people surrounding them.
Barnett is a huge supporter of the empty middle seat policy, as his findings would suggest, but the International Air Transport Association (IATA) aren’t exactly on the same page as him, describing the policy as ‘economically unfeasible’ for airlines.
According to Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO, ‘Screening, face coverings and masks are among the many layers of measures that we are recommending. Leaving the middle seat empty, however, is not.’
De Juniac instead suggests measures like ‘immunity passports‘ and COVID-19 tests that can be administered at scale could be used to ensure the safely for those flying once they become readily available.
‘We must arrive at a solution that gives passengers the confidence to fly and keeps the cost of flying affordable,’ he adds. ‘One without the other will have no lasting benefit.’
Image credit: Pixabay
