The International Air Transport Association (Iata) expects overall passenger numbers to reach 4 billion in 2024, exceeding pre-Covid numbers.
According to Iata, 4 billion passengers predicted for 2024 will be 103% of the 2019 total, before Covid-19. Interestingly, the recovery of passenger numbers was not affected by the discovery of the Omicron variant.
‘People want to travel and as soon as restrictions were lifted, passengers returned to the skies,’ says Iata director general, Willie Walsh. ‘There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.’
According to Iata:
- In 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
- In 2021, international traveller numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.
Not so promising for Africa
Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are not as comforting due to the slow vaccination rates, and the impact of the pandemic affecting developing economies more. According to the forecast, Africa’s passenger numbers will recover gradually, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, and only surpassing pre-crisis levels in 2025 with 101% of the 2019 total.
The Iata forecast did not take into account the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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